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What Lauren says is a good enough start, I'll simply refer you to his blog post.

Lauren Weinstein's Blog: "Your Papers, Please!" - Get Your Fingerprints Ready! Cross-Party Senate Alliance Pushing National ID Card http://j.mp/bBzApT

Greetings. According to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. Senate immigration reform advocates Chuck Schumer and Lindsey Graham are proposing a mandatory biometric (e.g. fingerprint-based) National ID Card system, and are attempting to brush away privacy concerns as trivial and irrelevant.

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I don't think I need to say much here. September 21.

Background and Purpose - International Day of Peace

About International Day of Peace, September 21


The International Day of Peace ("Peace Day") provides an opportunity for individuals, organizations and nations to create practical acts of peace on a shared date. It was established by a United Nations resolution in 1981 to coincide with the opening of the General Assembly. The first Peace Day was celebrated in September 1982.

In 2002 the General Assembly officially declared September 21 as the permanent date for the International Day of Peace.

By creating the International Day of Peace, the UN devoted itself to worldwide peace and encouraged all of mankind to work in cooperation for this goal. During the discussion of the U.N. Resolution that established the International Day of Peace, it was suggested that:

"Peace Day should be devoted to commemorating and strengthening the ideals of peace both within and among all nations and peoples…This day will serve as a reminder to all peoples that our organization, with all its limitations, is a living instrument in the service of peace and should serve all of us here within the organization as a constantly pealing bell reminding us that our permanent commitment, above all interests or differences of any kind, is to peace."

Since its inception, Peace Day has marked our personal and planetary progress toward peace. It has grown to include millions of people in all parts of the world, and each year events are organized to commemorate and celebrate this day. Events range in scale from private gatherings to public concerts and forums where hundreds of thousands of people participate.

Anyone, anywhere can celebrate Peace Day. It can be as simple as lighting a candle at noon, or just sitting in silent meditation. Or it can involve getting your co-workers, organization, community or government engaged in a large event. The impact if millions of people in all parts of the world, coming together for one day of peace, is immense.

International Day of Peace is also a Day of Ceasefire – personal or political. Take this opportunity to make peace in your own relationships as well as impact the larger conflicts of our time. Imagine what a whole Day of Ceasefire would mean to humankind.

Salon Article
Protesters here in Minneapolis have been targeted by a series of highly intimidating, sweeping police raids across the city, involving teams of 25-30 officers in riot gear, with semi-automatic weapons drawn, entering homes of those suspected of planning protests, handcuffing and forcing them to lay on the floor, while law enforcement officers searched the homes, seizing computers, journals, and political pamphlets. Last night, members of the St. Paul police department and the Ramsey County sheriff's department handcuffed, photographed and detained dozens of people meeting at a public venue to plan a demonstration, charging them with no crime other than "fire code violations," and early this morning, the Sheriff's department sent teams of officers into at least four Minneapolis area homes where suspected protesters were staying.

This isn't the first of these this week. It really bothers me that the police can arrest people, confiscate their goods, never press charges, and release them all later with no explanation and no consequences. This makes intimidation far too easy. The magic words "homeland security" keep getting invoked.

If the police now have a simple way to hold people without charges, then the people need a simple way to make the police suffer consequences when the power is misused. 

Well, okay, he's getting close…

Doonesbury@Slate - Daily Dose Donesbury

"Take the Middle East seriously, because that's the center of - that's the place where people get so despondent and despair that they're willing to come and take lives of U.S. citizens."
-- George W. Bush, asked on Al Arabiya TV what advice he would give the next president

You mean like, maybe policy of supporting dictatorships and monarchies, and squelching even semi-democracies, might possibly have something to do with terrorism?

Let's hear for for having three relatively independent branches of government. It's far from perfect, but the odds of all three making the same mistakes at the same time are thankfully low.


The future of President Bush's controversial military trial system for terror suspects held at Guantanamo Bay has been dealt a potentially terminal blow by the US Supreme Court.

In its third rebuke of the Bush Administration's treatment of prisoners at Guantanamo Bay, the court ruled that the 270 foreign terror suspects have the right under the US Constitution to challenge their detention in civilian courts on the American mainland.

The 5-4 ruling did not order the military tribunal process to be halted but it could trigger a chaotic rush to civilian courts that in practical terms will leave the question of what to do with men such as Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the September 11 mastermind, in the hands of the next president.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article4123181.ece

"Don't ask me about racism. As a white racist it didn't affect me. But if you ask me about fear, I can tell you about that."

Pieter-Dirk Uys, in "Elections and Erections"

Pieter-Dirk_Uys.jpgThat line ends a serious interlude in the show, one of several that provide counterpoint to the satire and humor he so deftly uses to highlight the flaws of South African society, both before and after apartheid. He has just told us how he came to be a democrat, and he has told us of sharing the garden-shed home of a yard-boy at a rich South African home. Of the fear of being discovered. The fear of being black with white, white with black. A fear so powerful that it overwhelms the fear of being man with man. Even now, when I relate the story to my friends, that final line sends a shiver down my spine.


Pieter-Dirk Uys' alter-ego is Evita Bezuidenhout, a household name in South Africa, famous for over thirty years of satire against the apartheid government. But she hasn't stopped there. "Elections and Erections" makes it clear that Uys' true enemy is that which makes people afraid. Whether it's corruption in the apartheid government or in the ANC; politicians denying the existence of AIDS; friendships with dictators based on a common race; ignorance; false pretenses; or just the everyday fears of trying to survive in a country stuck in a downward spiral. Uys wants to expose the things that make us afraid, shine the bright light of humor on them, and bring hope and laughter to the people he loves: the people of South Africa.

I'm hearing only bad news
From Radio Africa,
I'm hearing only sad news
From Radio Africa

"Radio Africa" by Latin Quarter.

MotherTheresa.jpgIf Evita Bezuidenhout has a counter-part in the the U.S., it might be Stephen Colbert, with his pseudo-conservative satire. But Evita is much more biting and relevant, and Uys has many more roles to don beyond Evita. He plays the ANC politicians contemplating whether the next president will get the position before, or after, he is thrown in jail for corruption. He lampoons (gently, but none-the-less) Archbishop Desmond Tutu. He describes the trials of a Jewish African Princess, her relatives self-exiled to Canada, trying desperately to be the liberal she knows she ought to be. He takes on Winnie Mandela, including relating the time he played her character (complete with rubber tire jewelry) with the real Winnie in the audience. He talks to the asian storekeeper whose husband used to be too black for jobs, but now is turned down because he is too white. He does a chilling rendition of Grace Mugabe as an evil child-like woman, losing her mind to AIDS. And he doesn't save all his barbs for Africa; his characterization of Mother Theresa, filling in for Marilyn Monroe as God's secretary, is priceless. The angels are on strike, suicide bombers keep showing up in pieces looking for their virgins, and the son of the managing director is refusing to return to Earth. He even does a great Hillary (and Bill!) impersonation.

What makes Uys' work really stand out, particularly as compared to American satirists like Colbert, is its compassion; even his enemies are human. The apartheid-era security chief he lampoons still had a sense of humor. Winnie Mandala may have "necklaced" informants, but she now tours AIDS facilities and pushes AIDS education. This, in a country where the government Health Minister promotes a cure of beet juice, and claims that HIV drugs are poisonous. His barbs are as pointed as they are funny, but he sees the humanity in everyone. In his heart, his true goal is to make his people happy and unafraid. You can see it in his eyes as he relates the story of a little black boy who wanders into his theatre as he is building the stage. From a simple "do you like to sing" and a few shaky songs, you see Uys' pride as he relates how that same child made it all the way to top awards at Trinity College. Uys' South Africa has nothing to do with race, and everything to do with the pride of being a good human being.

Told today that they release you
That you had paid your debt
Nomzamo in her own damn country
How much more boorish can these people get?
But you refuse to get the message
Of waving whips, in bloody semaphore
Where only gunfire's indiscriminate - as always
One People! One Cause!
One People! One Cause!
Nomzamo! Nomzamo...
"Nomzamo" by Latin Quarter.

South Africa has not been on the forefront of American minds for some time. As Uys says, if Nelson Rolihlahla Mandela hadn't had an easy-to-pronounce first name, Americans may not have been aware of the country's plight at all. In "Elections and Erections," Uys entertains, and more importantly, educates. Throughout the show, he relays tidbits of history and culture which later become the punch lines of his comedy, ensuring the audience understands the satirical context of his work. Yet the pace never suffers. The flow of comedy and pathos, serious and profane, never falters. This is not a show you want to miss. I only wish we could import Pieter-Dirk Uys to provide a similar look at ourselves.

"Elections and Erections: A Chronicle of Fear and Fun" is written and performed by Pieter-Dirk Uys. It is playing at the American Repertory Theatre's "Zero Arrow Theatre" playhouse (a wonderful dinner-theatre style space just off Harvard Square, with tables, a bar, and wonderful ambience). It will be showing through May 4th, 2008. For more information on this show and other performances, see the A.R.T. site.

The A.R.T. graciously provided free tickets to myself and other Boston-area bloggers in exchange for an honest review (good or bad). I'd like to thank them for initiating this experiment in new media.

Many thanks to @devyl for the editing assistance.
Any errors are due to my not following her advice.

I originally wrote this for my online "'zine" called Buzz, hosted on commons.somewhere.com. That was in November of 2000, right after the Florida election fiasco. Although the specifics of that election are dated, the general information is not. This is about polls, how newspapers report them, and how our need for instant results just makes things worse.

"Margin of error" is a measurement of how confident you can be of a statistical result.  My stats books have long since been relegated to a box in the basement, but if you want more specifics, try this link (http://whyfiles.org/009poll/math_primer.html).

The primary influence on the margin of error is the size of the sample, but methodology can also have an impact, although it generally isn't measurable until you discover just how wrong you were after the fact.  That's what happened in the famous Dewey vs. Truman example (they polled via telephone, and people who had telephones at the time turned out to be a rather different group of people than the general population).  Methodology problems also explain what went wrong with the predictions of who was going to win the 2000 presidential election in Florida, and why web-based polls (sell-selecting sample) are completely bogus.  Of course, if enough people start refusing to answer pollsters, all polls will be self-selecting and invalid.

The problem is that, although pollsters report margin of error, newspapers seldom give them more than a footnote.  So this year we've seen a lot of headlines like "XXX Takes the Lead" followed by an article that tells how the candidate is now two percentage points ahead, followed by something (buried deep inside) mentioning that the margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.  Let's be perfectly clear.  If the difference in the polls is within the margin of error, then there is no difference.  None.  Any headline to the contrary is making up something that doesn't exist.  If you did the poll again it might well show XXX losing by two points--and that wouldn't mean anything either.

But of course, margin of error in polls is a pretty trivial problem compared to margin of error in vote taking machinery.  The reports I've seen (sorry, I've lost the reference) say that these lovely punch card machines are, when working absolutely optimally with absolutely wonderfully punched cards, 99.9% accurate.  That sounds nice, until we consider that the machines in use throughout polling machines in this country are almost certainly not in optimal condition, and we know for a fact that the cards weren't well punched either.  On top of it all, 99.9% sounds nice, but the results of the Florida elections were so close that the difference between the candidates was less than .1%.  Or in other words, the difference was within the margin of error of the counting machines.  Which means, just like in polling, the difference is statistically insignificant.  It doesn't mean anything.  Do it again and you might get a different result. However, in this case the errors tend towards a particular type.  Punch card voting machines have trouble with partially poked holes--they think nobody voted.  This isn't necessarily because the voter screwed up either--you can poke the things and the chad still might not separate properly. So that biases the results in a particular direction.

So, we have a vote that is so close that it is statistically a tie.  You can either treat it that way, or you can try and decrease the margin of error.  That's what hand counting is all about.  The real good news is you don't have to hand count every single vote.  All you need to count are the ones that the voting machine rejected as being possibly in error.  Voting machines don't tend to count unpunched holes as punched (and if they did, you'd get multiple votes--so those will be flagged as errors anyway).  So by counting just a few (relatively speaking) votes, you can greatly increase the accuracy of the count, and thus decrease the margin of error.  Meaning that even if the results are still off by a few hundred votes--now you have confidence that those votes actually represent the will of the people.

BTW.  If punch cards are so inaccurate, how come computers used them so easily?  Two reasons.  One, you didn't punch computer punch cards by hand--you used a special machine.  You'd enter the data for a card, and then it punches out the holes.  Secondly, computer punch cards, in recognition of the fact that you can have errors, tended to use a checksum to help ensure that if something did go wrong with a card, you'd notice.  (An example checksum might be a parity bit--where a hole would be punched at the end if the result of adding the numbers on the card was even, and not if it was odd.  If a hole became clogged, or the chad fell out, the checksum would not be likely to match, and the card would be rejected.)

So, what was that about instant gratification?

Some people (primarily pundits and candidates) have been making much of urgency to bring the election to resolution as soon as possible.  This sounds reasonable because we are used to our election results being announced nearly as soon as the polls close (and sometimes before).  But in fact, the whole concept is silly.  The elections are not over until the electoral college has made its decision.  But even before that, as people are finally seeing in the Florida situation, there are three levels of "results" from an election.  There are the polls, there are the unofficially tallies (often made by some organization jointly formed by the two major parties), and then there are the official tallies that the state certifies.  You virtually never see the official tallies.  That's particularly frustrating if you are trying to form a viable third party, since the unofficial tallies often don't even bother to count minor candidates.  (Quick, how many votes did the Socialist Party get nationwide?)  A few years ago I voted for a third party candidate for governor and I was never able to find out how many votes he received. By the time the official results were available, nobody considered it news--so the press never reported it.  So far this election has taken no longer than any other election has ever taken.  It's just that this time people actually want to know what the real results are, not just the fast food version.

I originally wrote this in January of 2004 but never got around to posting it. Unfortunately, it seems to be just as relevant now. As Bruce Schneier says, we spend a lot of time and money (and fear) on "movie plot" security. The point of terrorism is to inspire fear. I suspect the terrorists have succeeded beyond their wildest expectations.

Today I dropped my laptop off at the Junior High (excuse me, "Middle School") so my daughter could make a presentation in Science class. (Yes, they have computers there, but they are these Windows things that don't meet my daughter's standards for design or elegance.) The plan was simple. I'd go in, meet her at the classroom between periods, give her the laptop, and return at the end of the period to pick it up. (It's my primary machine, I'm not going to leave it with her for the whole day.) I was going to drop it off at the office, but she suggested that I go in the back door. I pointed out that it was locked. She said to knock on the classroom window or wait until someone came out. I said I thought the front door might be a better idea.

Well, the best laid plans.... I was talking to a neighbor just before I left, and she told me I'd better get a hall pass. Seems that last Halloween a parent went to a class party (with the teacher's consent) dressed as a gangster, complete with a wooden gun. On the way out after class, someone asked him if he had a hall pass, he told them he was just leaving. A janitor followed him, someone called the police, he seemed to be driving towards another school (kind of hard not to do that in our town), there was a lockdown there and the police arrested him and took him to jail.

So I decided to play things by the book. I went in the front door to ask for a pass.

"May I help you?"
"Yes, I'd like to take this bag down to my daughter's science class, she needs it for the next period."
"Nooo, may I help you?"

Well, that was kind of a weird response. So I tried again. This time she actually explained. No, I couldn't go to the classroom. I'd have to leave it in the office. So I left it in the office, with a note to my daughter telling her she should bring it back to the office after class. They then called the classroom my daughter was currently in, interrupting the teacher, to tell him to have my daughter come to the office after class. (I'm told that the phone often rings four or five times in the classrooms in a single class—who's brilliant idea was that? When notes had to be delivered in person, they got prioritized.)

Ironically, this was in fact my original plan, but I'd rejected it when my daughter suggested going straight to the classroom, because I realized that between getting her stuff out of her locker, and coming to the office, there was no way she was going to make it in the four minutes they allot between classes.

An hour later I returned to the office, explained to a different person there that I was waiting for my daughter to return the laptop, and waited in the office. When the bell (tone) rang, I went and stood in the hall. Being on edge from all this concern about me, I carefully stood where they could see me from the window, so they'd know I wasn't going anywhere. All was going swimmingly until Baltimore (sorry, very obscure song reference there). I said "Hi" to a few students I knew, nodded to a teacher of two. Then the assistant principal showed up.

"Do you have pass?"
"No, I'm just waiting for my daughter."
"You need to check in to the office."
"I did. They know."
"You need to wait in the office. I hope you appreciate our security."

Well, no, as a matter of fact, I didn't appreciate it at all. That's like the record companies encrypting the CD as a "service" to the customer. But anyway, I kept my mouth shut... that time.

So she escorted me ten feet to the office door and inside. She then attempted to explain to the office person what I was doing there (we both told her we already knew—what, she doesn't hear a word I say?) The office person asked what classes my daughter was between, I explained, she said that meant she'd be passing from the stairwell to the auditorium. I agreed. That, I said, was why I'd been waiting where I could watch for her.

Well, at this point the assistant principal spoke up again. I don't remember the exact words, but it was to the same effect as before. That I should be glad that they were providing this level of security for my children.

I told her that she didn't want to get in a discussion with me about paranoia and security.

So of course, she did.

This wasn't paranoia, she said. These days you needed to provide tighter security.

I told her that I didn't like bringing up my kids in this kind of environment.

She agreed, but said that that was just the way we had to do it because of the times we lived in.

I said a few more things, but rather than paraphrase them quickly, let me state them here more clearly.

These are not dangerous times!

Americans are safer now than ever before in history. Not because of recent increased "security", but because of general changes in our society, and in the world as a whole. (Surprise, surprise. The world as a whole is generally better too—could be even better if we'd stop treating enemies of enemies as friends, and start thinking about them as people rather than governments, but that's a topic for another missive.)

Hijaackings? School bombings? Kidnappings? Firebombings? Groups planning the overthrow of the government? Hidden cells plotting acts of terrorism against citizens and buildings? Those aren't things that are happening now. Those are things that happened frequently in the 50's, 60's and 70's. Has everybody forgotten all the hijacked airplanes to Cuba? Ransome threats? The SLA? Bombed churches and schools? This isn't recent stuff, this is old news. We didn't get paranoid then. Why are we paranoid now?

And the paranoia isn't healthy. Our government is attempting to declare U.S. citizens to be enemy combatants with no rights at all. That barely makes sense if they are found fighting in a foreign country against us. But we're talking about U.S. citizens captured in the the United States, with no evidence that they ever took any action against the U.S.. And we've tens of millions of citizens that think this is a legitimate power for the government to have! Has everyone forgotten J. Edgar Hoover and doctored evidence? Has everyone forgotten Nixon and the breakins? McCarthy? Those were people who had absolutely no qualms about faking evidence against their enemies. What could possibly persuade someone to give that kind of unaccountable power to our government? We have proof that given secrecy and power, our government officials will eventually abuse it. And yet we want to give them more secrecy and more power?

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2004-01-12-code-orange-cover_x.htm "Of the 14,000 names that were examined during the alert, there were 300 such "hits," the counterterrorism official says. None turned out to be a terrorist, the official says." False positives that high are very bad, not only do they make the system a huge annoyance (that's a very small number of people checked—imagine checking an entire airport) but after awhile you stop taking the reports seriously.
And then we have the fake security. Take checking names of incoming foreign nationals. It's not like we're doing it secretly, such that we might catch someone by surprise. Out in the open we are doing name checks that have over a 2% false positive rate (in other words, 2 out of every 100 people matches a terrorist and gets shunted aside, or taken off the plane, or causes the flight to be canceled). And who will this catch? Any known terrorist who has the idiotic lack of sense to travel into the U.S. on a passport in his own name. Now how difficult do you think that is to bypass?

But, you say. This is all different. It calls for extreme measures.

What is different? Terrorism in the U.S.? Hardly. Domestic terrorism has been a problem in this country since its founding. I didn't see anyone asking Christian ministers to stand-up and condemn the bombing of the Federal Building by a Christian. Foreign terrorism isn't new either. We have a family friend who was assassinated in a New Jersey parking lot. He was a high profile Bahai, and someone had him hunted down and killed. This isn't even the first time the World Trade Center was attacked—we didn't panic the first time that happened.

America is a very safe place to live. The problem is, the safer we get, the more we jump at shadows and worry about little things. This time we got hit with a big and successful attack. Our government has deliberately taken advantage of our fear to take steps that give the government more power, and the citizens less power and less freedom. One common misperception they've pushed, and I think it is more from self-delusion than a deliberate attempt to mislead, is that there is some danger of an attack on the American infrastructure. The World Trade Center was hardly a piece of American infrastructure. It was a symbol of American capitalism and of American arrogance (in the sense that it was an attempt to show off by building higher for the sake of building higher). It was attacked because, like almost all terrorism, this is a battle over ideas and a way of life (and democracy isn't the issue, so much as capitalism and democracy without moral direction). The Golden Gate bridge isn't a symbol of America, and so it's not a likely target. Killing lots of people by spreading nuclear fallout isn't the kind of thing that gets viewed as a move against foreign oppression. Domestic terrorists, fighting what they believe to be an internal war for control, attack that kind of thing. But this is a battle of symbols and press. If you want to look for targets of external terrorism, then look to things that symbolize the worst of the United States to the rest of the world.

But don't look to the local Junior High.

There is absolutely no reason for paranoid security at a middle school. Abductions haven't been suddenly climbing—they've been steadily declining, even before tightened security. Kids aren't innocent of the outside world, they are more aware. And Osama Bin Ladin is not going to try and take out the local Middle School. Furthermore, if some guy with a gun walks into the school and starts shooting the kids, forcing every parent (and even substitute teachers) to wear little badges is not going to slow him down one second. And if he really wants to be stealthy, is the work of a few minutes to make a fake badge that would escape all but the closest scrutiny. Finally, because it's a silly requirement, and because everyone knows in their heart that it's a not a big deal—it doesn't get treated as real. I spoke to half a dozen kids, nodded to several teachers. Did any one of them comment on the fact that I didn't have a badge? No. Not the teachers, the administrators or the kids. Not the ones who knew me, or the ones who didn't.

So what are we teaching in our schools? We're teaching people to be afraid and at the same time, that they should ignore authority. Silly rules breed disrespect. At first it's just disrespect of the silly rules. But it spreads. You stop having respect for the people who made them. And then you stop taking the sensible rules seriously. And throughout all of it is this general sense of fear. You're told that things are dangerous, but you can see that nothing real is being done about it. Either you stop believing anything they say, or you start believing you have no control over your future.

None of those things are lessons I want my kids to learn. And I'd far rather have them take their chances in the real world, than live behind a barrier of lies and half-truths.

So no. I don't appreciate security that manifests itself as distrust and lack of respect for parents and students, without providing any real security. And I'm appalled that people can look at the present and be so frightened, having completely forgotten that the past was much worse.

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I'm the CEO/CTO of Somewhere, Inc., a company building a unified social networking layer that gives people the means to track their friends across multiple social networks.
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